Jeram Padang: Manivanan Gowin’s chances of winning the seat!

Seremban: As campaigning intensifies ahead of the August 1 Negeri Sembilan state assembly election, all eyes are on Jeram Padang, where PKR candidate G. Manivannan is aiming to wrest the historically MIC-held stronghold in a dynamic four-cornered contest.

Jeram Padang has long been recognised as a traditional MIC seat within the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, having been continuously represented by MIC candidates across six consecutive terms since 1995. However, following the 2023 six-state elections where BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) forged an electoral pact, MIC opted not to contest state seats across the six states, leading to BN re-assigning Jeram Padang to UMNO. In that election, UMNO’s Mohd Zaidy bin Abdul Kadir secured the seat by a narrow margin of 693 votes against Bersatu’s Surash Sreenivasan in a straight fight.

For the current election cycle, Jeram Padang features a competitive four-cornered race among its 16,590 registered voters. Notably, the constituency holds the highest concentration of Indian voters in Negeri Sembilan at 33.2%, alongside 52.3% Malay voters, 9.3% Chinese voters, 4.5% Indigenous (Orang Asli) voters, and 0.5% from other communities.

The four candidates contesting Jeram Padang are:

• G. Manivannan (Pakatan Harapan – PKR)

• Mohd Zaidy bin Abdul Kadir (Barisan Nasional – UMNO)

• Sri Sanjeevan Ramakrishnan (Bersatu)

• Dayana Binti Bahrin (Parti Asli)

Manivannan, a former Member of Parliament who won the Kapar Parliamentary seat in Selangor under the PKR banner in 2013, currently serves as the PKR division chief for Jempol, the parliamentary constituency under which Jeram Padang falls. Local observers note that Manivanan’s deep grassroots presence in Jeram Padang positions him well to command substantial support among the area’s decisive Indian electorate. Jeram Padang is also Manivanan’s hometown.

With the Malay vote expected to split three ways among UMNO, Bersatu, and PKR, political analysts emphasise that Jeram Padang’s large Indian voter base will serve as the kingmaker, determining whether Manivannan can deliver a key victory for PKR or if UMNO will retain the seat.

It will also depend on how many votes Bersatu can secure; that will determine the ultimate winner. If Bersatu can poll a sizable portion of the Malay votes, then that will jeopardise UMNO’s chances of retaining the seat, as Indian votes are expected to be split between Manivanan and Sri Sanjeevan.

The 9.3% Chinese votes are expected to be an advantage for Manivanan, as the Chinese votes are expected to go to PH due to the presence of DAP and given the recent rhetoric of Kedah MB Sanusi Nor.