GE 16: Three or Four corner battles?

(R.Mutharasan)

KUALA LUMPUR: As Barisan Nasional (BN) publicly pressures Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to call the 16th General Election (GE16) early, a call echoed by PAS, political analysts are increasingly focused on a central question: will the upcoming electoral landscape feature three-way or four-way contests?

The upcoming Melaka State Election is expected to serve as an immediate test of how these political realignments take shape.

Tracing the Potential Four-Way Contests

Currently, four distinct political blocs have emerged on the Peninsular political canvas:

Outside these four blocs, smaller parties such as Bersatu, MUDA, and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) remain unaligned. Having suffered severe losses in previous elections when contesting independently against major coalitions, these smaller parties are widely expected to seek alliances with one of the four established blocs for both the Melaka state election and GE16.

(Note: This political calculation excludes state-based dynamics in Sabah and Sarawak).

The Three-Way Scenario

Conversely, if BN and PN establish an electoral pact, the field will consolidate into three-way contests involving:

This dynamic is expected to become clearer once the official campaign for Melaka gets underway.

The Fate of Bersatu

The Perikatan Nasional coalition leadership has reshaped its structure by sidelining Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu party. The current PN structure includes Gerakan, the Malaysian Indian People’s Party (MIPP), and Parti Wawasan, a breakaway faction resulting from the split within Bersatu.

PN leadership argues that Bersatu automatically forfeited its membership of the coalition after choosing to contest the Negeri Sembilan state election independently. Bersatu counters that it remains a legitimate member of PN and has lodged a formal complaint with the Registrar of Societies (RoS).

The RoS has yet to issue an official ruling. Should the RoS side with Bersatu, the PN coalition’s name and logo could be temporarily frozen. Nevertheless, the PAS-led coalition is expected to rebrand under a new name and logo if necessary, leaving the total number of competing blocs unchanged.

With Hamzah Zainudin’s Parti Wawasan firmly entrenched within PN and Hamzah serving as Opposition Leader, a reconciliation between Bersatu and PN appears unlikely. Having suffered heavy losses in Negeri Sembilan while retaining only a small fraction of votes, Bersatu’s survival depends on aligning with either BN or PH.

Given deep-seated historical rivalries, UMNO is unlikely to accept Bersatu unless the party dissolves and its members rejoin UMNO, a scenario considered improbable. Consequently, Bersatu’s most viable option may be to rejoin Anwar Ibrahim’s PH coalition, mirroring its 2018 electoral arrangement.

Is a BN-PH Pact Still Viable?

Although BN and PH previously announced discussions regarding electoral cooperation in Melaka, the likelihood of a formal pact appears to be diminishing. Tensions have re-emerged following recent calls by DAP leaders for the reinstatement of the corruption charges against UMNO President Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

Given these friction points, political observers suggest BN will either seek a localised electoral understanding with PN or contest independently to gauge its strength on its own.

The Dilemma for MUDA and PSM

MUDA and PSM have already announced an electoral pact to cooperate in upcoming polls. If they successfully integrate into one of the major coalitions, they could bolster their vote share. Otherwise, both parties risk being relegated to minor roles, capturing only a few hundred votes per constituency and facing gradual political marginalisation.

Ongoing UMNO-PAS Relations

Despite ongoing public friction, channels of communication between UMNO and PAS remain active. UMNO representatives attended the PAS Annual General Assembly (Muktamar) in Kelantan over the weekend (pic), and PAS leaders have been invited to attend the upcoming UMNO General Assembly scheduled to begin on September 9.

However, significant hurdles stand in the way of an official UMNO-PAS electoral pact because of the following questions:

If UMNO and PAS successfully overcome these hurdles and reach a compromise, the political landscape in the upcoming state and parliamentary elections will shift to three-way contests, paving the way for major political realignments. UMNO’s upcoming General Assembly is expected to provide key indications regarding its next moves toward PAS.