Johor Elections: Will MIC Reclaim Its Four State Assembly Seats?

By R. Mutharasan

JOHOR BARU — Although the Johor State Assembly’s term does not expire until March 2027, speculation is mounting that the 16th General Election could be called this year, with state and parliamentary polls held simultaneously.

The last Johor state elections, held in March 2022, preceded the 15th General Election and took place before the formation of the Unity Government, also known as the Madani Government, a coalition between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN).

Those elections were marked by three-cornered contests involving BN, PH and Perikatan Nasional (PN). BN emerged as the dominant party, capturing 33 seats, while its coalition partner, MCA, won four. MIC contested four seats but secured only three. Together, the BN coalition claimed 40 seats, forming the state government with a commanding majority in the state assembly, which has 56 constituencies.

Ahead of the next Johor state elections — whenever they are called — PH and BN will need to reach a consensus on how to divide seats among their respective coalition partners.

DAP Secretary-General Anthony Loke has urged Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to push for simultaneous polls, arguing that the move is essential to prevent parties within the Madani Government from fielding candidates against one another.

Conflicting Signals From PH Leaders

DAP Deputy Minister and Kulai MP Teo Nie Cheng told reporters recently that a tripartite committee comprising PKR, DAP and Amanah is currently engaged in seat allocation talks, and that negotiations are proceeding constructively. She stressed that early agreement on seat distribution is crucial to ensure PH enters the Johor elections well-prepared.

However, other PH leaders appear to be getting ahead of themselves. Johor Amanah chairman Aminolhuda Hassan has separately announced that his party has identified 20 state seats it intends to contest — a striking ambition given that Amanah currently holds just one state assembly seat in Johor.

Johor PKR chairwoman Datuk Sri Zaliha Mustapha, meanwhile, has declared that her party has earmarked 28 seats for the coming contest.

DAP, for its part, currently holds 10 state assembly seats. MUDA holds one — the Puteri Wangsa seat, won by Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz with PH’s backing — but that seat is expected to be up for grabs, as MUDA is unlikely to rejoin the PH fold. MUDA is reportedly in talks to align itself with PN instead.

BN has yet to make any official statement on seat negotiations, though it is widely expected to push hard to defend its combined tally of 40 seats alongside its coalition partners. The state UMNO deputy chief Ahmad Maslan recently told BERNAMA That no official negotiations have been held either at the state or central level on the matter. “Johor has not made any decision on how we will contest the state polls,” he told BERNAMA.

Will MIC get back 4 seats under BN?

A key variable in BN’s calculations is MIC’s future within the coalition. It remains unclear whether MIC will stay with BN through the Johor elections or opt to exit following a resolution passed at last year’s MIC General Assembly. For now, under the existing formula, MIC would be expected to reclaim the three seats it won in 2022.

MIC contested four constituencies in the last election — Kemelah, Kahang, Tenggaroh and Bukit Batu — winning all but Bukit Batu. Whether MIC, assuming it remains within BN, will be handed back those four seats or only the three seats it won, is far from certain.

MCA faces an equally difficult test. Despite contesting 15 seats in 2022, the party won only four, losing the remainder largely to DAP and other PH parties.

With so many competing claims within both coalitions, the seat-sharing negotiations between BN and PH promise to be protracted and contentious. How the parties ultimately reconcile their differences — and at whose expense — will be one of the defining stories heading into the next Johor election.