PAS chances of winning 5 seats in Negeri polls amidst controversies!
(R.Mutharasan)
SEREMBAN: As campaigning reaches its final lap in the Negeri Sembilan state assembly election, political analysts are assessing whether PAS can secure victories in any of the five constituencies it is contesting under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner. Although Perikatan Nasional was allocated 11 seats in Negeri Sembilan following an electoral arrangement with Barisan Nasional (BN), PAS is fielding candidates in only five: Serting, Lobak, Ampangan, Paroi, and Bagan Pinang.
During the 2023 state elections, PN secured five seats in Negeri Sembilan, three of which were won by PAS and two by Bersatu. However, with BN not contesting in these 11 constituencies for the current poll, PAS faces a changed political dynamic as it seeks to hold or expand its footprint.
It may be necessary for PAS to win at least 4 of these seats to show that it was worth BN allocating 11 seats and going for an electoral pact with PAS.
Lobak
Of the 5 seats PAS is contesting, Lobak looks odd in every sense for PAS to win, as it has 71.5% Chinese voters, 21.9% Indian, and only 4.6% Malay voters. How PAS accepted this seat and agreed to contest is a mystery. Furthermore, PAS is fielding an Indian candidate, Kumar Paramasivam, under the PN banner. PAS is unlikely to defeat the DAP candidate in Lobak, which was traditionally won by DAP, with Anthony Loke himself winning the seat in 2004 and 2008.
Serting
In the 2023 state assembly elections, PAS won this seat by a majority of 843 votes against the BN-UMNO candidate. Therefore, it may look like an easy ride for PAS without UMNO-BN in the ring, but Bersatu has also fielded a candidate. PH has tasked Amanah to win this seat from PAS.
With 78.2% Malay votes, Serting will be a game of play to see which party can win the largest block of Malay votes. Amanah may have the advantage of securing most of the 12% Chinese voters and 8.7 Indian voters.
Ampangan
In Ampangan, a three-cornered contest has emerged among candidates from PKR, Bersatu, and PAS (contesting under the PN symbol). In the 2023 election, PKR won Ampangan by a narrow majority of just 329 votes. While BN’s absence might theoretically favour PAS, the presence of a Bersatu candidate threatens to split opposition Malay votes. With 72.8% Malay votes split between 3 factions, namely PKR, PAS and Bersatu, non-Malay votes comprising 23.9% may be crucial for PKR-PH. The Chinese voters form 15.6% while the Indians form 8.3%
Paroi
Paroi, which is one of the 4 state assembly constituencies under the Rembau Parliament, was won by PAS in 2023 by a majority of 5,539 votes against Amanah-PH in a two-cornered contest. In this election, PAS is fielding Kamarol Ridzuan again to win back the seat in a 3 cornered contest with Amanah and Bersatu. To what extent Bersatu will be able to split the votes in favour of PAS will determine the Amanah candidate’s victory.
Indian votes form 14.4% in Paroi, higher than the Chinese votes of 5.7%, and this non-muslim block may give a helping hand to the Amanah-PH candidate.
Bagan Pinang
Bagan Pinang, which is one of the 5 state assembly seats under the Port Dickson Parliament, will be another interesting seat to watch. Bagan Pinang was won by PAS in 2023 by 3,426 votes. PAS is facing a three-cornered battle against Amanah-PH and Bersatu. Again, PAS’s victory depends on the 75.6% Malay vote that Bersatu is likely to split away from PAS.
Indians form 9.7% of the total voters, more than Chinese who form about 6.9%.
In the final count, when the results are out, 2 key factors will emerge. One is whether it was advantageous for PAS to win back the 3 seats it won in 2023 in the absence of UMNO-BN candidates, and the other factor is to what extent Bersatu still has ground support among the Malay community.
