Negeri Polls: UMNO backlash and Bersatu’s performance may affect BN’s chances!
SEREMBAN: As the voting day for the Negeri Sembilan polls approaches, two distinct factors emerge that might affect the BN-PN electoral pact and jeopardise BN’s dream of capturing the state. The first factor is backlash from UMNO’s divisional leaders, and the other is Bersatu’s performance in attracting Malay votes that would otherwise go to Perikatan.
Internal friction within United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) ranks has reportedly begun to surface across Negeri Sembilan, following the last-minute decision by Barisan Nasional (BN) leadership to cede 11 state assembly seats to Perikatan Nasional (PN). Initial campaign plans called for Barisan Nasional to contest all 36 state constituencies in the state. However, following a sudden electoral arrangement with PN, BN scaled back its lineup to 25 seats, leaving the remaining 11 to its new coalition partner.
The move has triggered discontent among local UMNO division leaders who had spent months preparing to contest those specific seats. Reports circulating across the state political circuit suggest that aggrieved grassroots figures are now quietly working behind the scenes to undermine PN candidates in those 11 constituencies as payback for losing their candidacies.
Of the 11 seats allocated to PN, PAS is contesting in 5 seats, namely Serting, Lobak, Ampangan, Paroi and Bagan Pinang. Lobak is a predominantly Chinese-majority seat. The remaining 4 seats are Malay-majority seats. Of the remaining 6 seats, Wawasan, led by Hamzah Zainudin, is contesting in 4 seats, namely Klawang, Sikamat, Mambau and Gemas. Except for Mambau, which is a Chinese-majority seat, the rest are Malay-majority seats. Undoubtedly, these 7 Malay-majority seats would have gone to the respective UMNO division leaders if not for the electoral pact with PN.
As a result, some political observers are of the opinion the UMNO divisional leaders in these 7 Malay-majority may not be supportive of the PN candidates and that backlash may be an hindrance for PN to win in these seats.
Pakatan Harapan may gain an edge as Bersatu splits the Malay Vote
Concurrently, the prospect of a consolidated Malay-Muslim vote bank backing the BN-PN alliance has been significantly disrupted. In a development that offers relief to Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidates, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) has deployed candidates across 24 constituencies under its own party logo.
By challenging both PH and the BN-PN alliance directly, Bersatu is set to split the crucial Malay electorate, inadvertently bolstering the prospects of Pakatan Harapan candidates in multi-cornered contests. The question is what percentage of votes Bersatu may be able to break away from its former coalition PN, and that will determine the ultimate winner in the 24 seats Bersatu is contesting. If Bersatu candidates can poll even one or two thousand votes in each of the constituencies it is contesting, then that will indirectly help PH candidates secure victory, as non-Muslim votes are seen to be shifting to the PH coalition in view of Kedah MB’s recent remarks.
Who has more support, Hamzah or Muhyiddin?
The outcome of the Negeri Sembilan state election is expected to provide key insights into the ongoing power struggle between Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Hamzah Zainudin. Bersatu remains divided into two distinct factions: one led by party President Muhyiddin Yassin alongside Azmin Ali, and the other anchored by Hamzah Zainudin, who has taken over the Wawasan Negara party and is aligning himself with PAS.
For years, political observers have debated the nature of the PAS-Bersatu relationship: does PAS derive its strength from Bersatu, or does Bersatu depend entirely on PAS for political survival?
The upcoming polling results are poised to answer that question. The final vote tallies will clarify whether Bersatu’s grassroots base, particularly in Negeri Sembilan, continues to back Muhyiddin’s central leadership or has shifted its allegiance toward Hamzah’s Wawasan faction.
