Barisan Nasional’s target is to retain its 40-seat stronghold!
Johor Bahru: The foundational question defining the Johor election is whether Barisan Nasional (BN) can defend the 40 seats it swept during the 2022 state polls. In the ongoing hectic campaign, losing even one or two of these seats will be framed as a defeat for the coalition, triggering intense post-mortems.
If BN’s numbers decline, observers will point to several internal and external friction points:
* Did the controversial statements by Puad Zarkashi regarding palace intervention alienate voters?
* Has Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz’s staunch anti-DAP stance pushed Chinese voters away from the BN fold?
* Are localised grievances, such as the pig farming issue, driving Chinese voters back toward DAP?
* By operating as part of the federal government with Pakatan Harapan (PH) while actively undermining Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim locally, is UMNO sabotaging its own base?
Conversely, there is a strong possibility that BN could surpass 40 seats. However, analysts argue that a larger victory would not necessarily signal a surge in genuine grassroots popularity for BN. Instead, it would likely be the mechanical byproduct of a fractured opposition. With opposition parties failing to present a united front, they risk splitting the anti-BN vote, handing BN victory on a silver platter.
That said, a split vote does not guarantee a BN clean sweep. In closely contested seats, PH, Bersatu, or Perikatan Nasional (PN) could still pull off narrow victories with razor-thin majorities. Currently, BN and PH are set for head-to-head clashes in all 56 state assembly seats, with several areas complicated by multi-cornered fights.
Puad Zarkashi’s appearance at a Pakatan Harapan event with Anwar Ibrahim, supporting PKR Puteri Wangsa candidate Dr Maszlee Malik, has also created political buzz in Johor, sparking speculation that he may join PKR. However, Puan has denied such speculations.
(Pic: Puad Zarkashi with Anwar Ibrahim at one of the campaign meetings in Johor)
