Negeri Sembilan: PH’s hurried and dangerous strategy may backfire!

(R.Mutharasan)

Seremban: Following the sudden dissolution of the Johor State Assembly and the subsequent call for state elections, Democratic Action Party (DAP) Secretary-General Anthony Loke issued a direct challenge. At the time of the Johor political shift, Loke explicitly warned that if the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition made the sudden, unilateral decision to dissolve the Johor state legislature to contest elections independently, Pakatan Harapan (PH) would retaliate by dissolving the Negeri Sembilan State Assembly to trigger an immediate election there as well.

Many political observers initially expressed deep scepticism about whether this warning would be carried out. This doubt stemmed from the fact that the Johor state elections were held in early 2022, meaning its legal five-year term was naturally scheduled to conclude around March 2027. With only a few remaining months left for the state assembly term to expire, a pre-term dissolution in Johor was heavily anticipated.

In contrast, the Negeri Sembilan State Assembly election was only held in 2023. With the state government having completed only three years of its active five-year democratic mandate, a sudden election was seen as highly unlikely.

However, in line with the political developments, Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun officially announced that the state assembly would be dissolved on Friday, June 5th. Following this announcement, Pakatan Harapan has been forced to execute a highly complex, critical strategic gambit to retain power in Negeri Sembilan.

The political landscape is further complicated by the recent outcomes in Johor, where the BN is going solo, while continuing as a coalition partner with PH under the unity Madani government.

Observers anticipate that the BN coalition will also go solo in Negeri Sembilan. If they can pull off a victory in Negeri Sembilan, as they are expected to do in Johor, that would exert extreme pressure on the ruling Pakatan Harapan leadership, and the fragile, unity-madani government may buckle, paving the way for the 16th General Election.

PH’s hurried strategy may backfire

Political analysts suggest that a more calculated, tactical approach for Pakatan Harapan would have been to deploy its absolute institutional strength to directly counter Perikatan Nasional during the Johor elections to maximise seat wins there. Instead, the PH leadership appears to have rushed into the premature dissolution of the Negeri Sembilan legislature.

The true danger of this political gambit lies in the upcoming state polls. If BN wins both Johor and Negeri Sembilan to form the next state governments in these states, respectively, it will deal a catastrophic blow to the core leadership of Pakatan Harapan. Such a defeat would cast serious doubt over the PH coalition’s viability and its capacity to mount a successful campaign in the next general election.

Ultimately, dissolving the Negeri Sembilan State Assembly with two full years left on its constitutional mandate is viewed as a highly impulsive, emergency response to a fluid political crisis. Analysts and citizens alike are now closely watching to see whether Pakatan Harapan can survive its own complex strategy, or whether the move will inadvertently pave the way for BN to take over both Johor and Negeri Sembilan.